In many ways, the growth in the immigrant population in recent years has helped to strengthen and remake America. As the baby boomers retire, younger immigrants are filling gaps in our workforce and paying the taxes that help our entitlement programs survive. They are buying homes in communities that would be in decline otherwise. And naturalized immigrants are gaining more influence at the voting booth, a trend that will only accelerate in the coming decade.
Immigrant Population Growth
Both the number and the share of immigrants in America are increasing, with the U.S. Census Bureau projecting that between 2027 and 2038 international migration will be the primary driver of U.S. population growth for the first time in two centuries.1 The trend is already underway. Between 1990 and 2014, the number of immigrants living in America more than doubled. By 2014, more than one in eight Americans were foreign-born. Immigrants play a particularly important role in California, where they make up more than one out of every four residents.
1 U.S. Census Bureau, “International Migration is Projected to Become Primary Driver of U.S. Population Growth for First Time in Nearly Two Centuries,” press release (2013), accessed July 30, 2014. Available online.
|19.8 million: Number of foreign-born residents in the United States, 1990.|
|31.1 million: Number of foreign-born residents in the United States, 2000.|
|39.9 million: Number of foreign-born residents in the United States, 2010.|
|42.2 million: Number of foreign-born residents in the United States, 2014.|
Mitigating Baby Boomer Retirement
The ratio of seniors to working-age adults in America has remained relatively constant since 1980, at about 240 seniors for every 1,000 workers. With the Baby Boomers’ retirement, however, the ratio is poised to jump a stunning 67 percent in the next two decades, to 411 seniors for every 1,000 workers.2 Already, less than half the U.S.-born population is working-age, or between the ages of 25 and 64. Meanwhile, almost three-quarters of the foreign-born population fall into that age bracket, allowing them to make important contributions to both the labor force and U.S. tax coffers.
2 Dowell Myers, “Immigrants’ Contributions in an Aging America,” Community Banking, no. Sum (2008): 3–5.
|Share Immigrants, 25-64||Share Natives, 25-64|
Housing and Entitlement Contributions
Because immigrants are far more likely to be working-age, they play an important role contributing to the entitlement programs that help seniors as they age. One NAE study found that between 1996 and 2011 immigrants contributed $182.4 billion more to Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund—the core trust fund in the program—than was expended on their care. Immigrants also have made up roughly one in seven homebuyers in recent years, often purchasing the homes of Baby Boomers as they retire.
|29.7 percent: Share of U.S. homeowners who were seniors, 2014.|
|14.1 percent: Share of individuals who bought a home within the last 4 years who were immigrants.|
|15.7 million: Number of immigrants who have bought homes within the last 4 years.|
Fueling Growth in New Destination States
Before 1990, nearly three-quarters of immigrants lived in one of six gateway states: California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.3 By 2010, those states’ share had started to drop significantly, to 65 percent, as immigrants increasingly began settling in new-destination states, such as Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Washington. As immigrants move into new states, they help offset brain drain and population decline, often filling positions that would have remained vacant otherwise. The more than 10,000 immigrants that moved to North Dakota between 2010 and 2014, for instance, helped fill labor gaps created when locals took well-paid jobs during the shale oil boom.4
3 The Pew Charitable Trusts, “U.S. Immigration: National and State Trends and Actions” (November 2013). Available online.
4 Jack Nicas, “North Dakota City Draws Foreign Workers,” Wall Street Journal, 2012, sec. Business. Available online.
|Number of Foreign-Born Residents, 2014||Growth of Foreign-Born Population, 2010-2014|
|District of Columbia||92,820||16.2%|
As more immigrants naturalize and become eligible to vote, they will continue to gain power at the voting booth. Nationally, almost 20 million foreign-born citizens were eligible to vote in the 2016 election. By 2020, that figure is projected to rise to 21.2 million. In some states, foreign-born voters are already capable of deciding elections. In Nevada, for instance, almost 256,000 immigrants were eligible to vote in 2016, a number more than nine times higher than Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory in the state that year.
|19.9 million: Number of eligible immigrant voters, 2016.|
|21.2 million: Estimated number of eligible immigrant voters, 2020.|
|11.2 million: Number of immigrants registered to vote, 2014.|
|Number of Eligible Foreign-Born Voters||2016 Margin|
Diversifying the Electorate
Although the white working class played a significant role in the 2016 election, demographic trends mean they will see their influence decline in future electoral contests. While only 11.2 percent of the current U.S. senior population identifies as Hispanic or Asian-American, 27.8 percent of those graduating from high school in the next decade do.5 This means that between 2015 and 2024, the share of the electorate that is white is projected to decline by 4.4 percent. The share that will be both white and working class will see even steeper declines, falling by 5.5 percent. Given this reality, politicians hoping to remain competitive in key states in the future will need to ensure that they do not ignore the needs of Hispanic and Asian voters, many of whom are immigrants.
5 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.
|88 percent: Share of voters, white, 1992.|
|70 percent: Share of voters, white, 2016.|
|8.2 million: Number of Hispanic and Asian citizens who will turn 18 by 2020 and become eligible to vote.|
|4.2 million: Number of Hispanic and Asian residents projected to naturalize by 2020, gaining voting eligibility.|
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